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scrolling=no src='http://zhenyuan007.com/ad/30.html' width=740 height=92 style="FONT-SIZE: 12px;line-height: 18px"></iframe></div> </div>   <div class="rwb41fu" id="mainDiv">  <div class="gdrbrjl" id="leftMainDiv"> <div class="ur0ykv1" id="location"> <span>本頁位置：</span><font color=ffffff><a href="/home.shtml"><font color=ffffff>首頁</font></a> → <a href="/index.shtml"><font color=ffffff>新聞中心</font></a> → </font><a href=/economic.html><font color=ffffff>經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞</font></a> </div> <div class="b7lcsql" id="newsContent"> <div class="8ddiowo" id="newstext"> <div class="b2jtfw9" id="pageOp">【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='20px';">放大字體</a>】【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="mltkw9d" class="title0">國際油價(jià)繼續(xù)下挫中國經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⑹芤?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年09月12日 08:59 來源：經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào) <span id="rhglzz4" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="fv95zs7" class="style3">發(fā)表評(píng)論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="c9she4x" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="79ijfbc" class="slice"></div> <div class="qvw1jmr" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　由于美元對(duì)主要貨幣匯率勁升抵消了石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)減產(chǎn)和美國原油商業(yè)庫存下降的影響，國際油價(jià)10日繼續(xù)下挫，紐約市場原油價(jià)格盤中最低觸至每桶101.36美元，收于102.58美元，倫敦市場原油收盤價(jià)則跌破百元大關(guān)，收于每桶98.97美元。</p> <p>　　紐約市場原油期貨價(jià)格今年1月初首次突破每桶100美元這一重要的心理關(guān)口，此后油價(jià)持續(xù)飆升，并于7月11日創(chuàng)下每桶147.27美元的歷史最高紀(jì)錄。在這之后油價(jià)出現(xiàn)明顯回落，跌幅超過三成。</p> <p>　　分析人士認(rèn)為，國際油價(jià)大幅下挫，國內(nèi)能源成本隨之下降，這對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是一大利好。同時(shí)，國際油價(jià)的回落也是我國理順石油價(jià)格體系及一系列改革措施出臺(tái)的時(shí)機(jī)。 </p> <p>　　<strong>國際油價(jià)仍處高位</strong></p> <p>　　市場普遍認(rèn)為，由于擔(dān)心世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩影響原油消費(fèi)需求、美元對(duì)西方主要貨幣持續(xù)回升以及市場資金撤離，紐約油價(jià)近期也很可能會(huì)跌破100美元大關(guān)。</p> <p>　　清華大學(xué)國情研究中心管清友博士在接受本報(bào)記者采訪時(shí)說，雖然國際油價(jià)短期會(huì)在100美元關(guān)口震蕩一段時(shí)間，但由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景黯淡且原油產(chǎn)能大幅增加的可能性較小，國際油價(jià)的下跌趨勢已經(jīng)形成。</p> <p>　　管清友還指出，造成這一下跌趨勢的原因十分復(fù)雜，除了以往分析的供需及美元因素外，還有兩方面的原因值得關(guān)注。首先，市場心理預(yù)期的變化在導(dǎo)致短期投機(jī)資本撤離市場的同時(shí)，也使得以商品指數(shù)基金為代表的長期資本逐漸從原油期貨市場轉(zhuǎn)向其他金融市場，油價(jià)反彈缺乏資金動(dòng)力。其次，由于原油價(jià)格變化不僅意味著全球財(cái)富的重新分配，也代表著權(quán)力和國際話語權(quán)的轉(zhuǎn)移，美歐不會(huì)坐視國際油價(jià)不斷上漲下去，必然會(huì)采取打壓市場投機(jī)等方式拉低油價(jià)，防止一些能源大國在政治地位上對(duì)自己構(gòu)成威脅。</p> <p>　　國土資源部油氣資源戰(zhàn)略研究中心岳來群博士也認(rèn)同美歐會(huì)干預(yù)國際油市的觀點(diǎn)。他認(rèn)為，俄羅斯和格魯吉亞近期發(fā)生的沖突令美歐國家進(jìn)一步認(rèn)識(shí)到能源問題的重要性，后者可能會(huì)通過降低油價(jià)達(dá)到減少俄羅斯外匯收入、進(jìn)而削弱其國際影響力的目的。</p> <p>　　不過，分析人士同時(shí)指出，盡管國際油價(jià)已經(jīng)回落至百元附近，但國際油價(jià)高位運(yùn)行的狀況仍未得到改善，石油價(jià)格中的泡沫仍未被完全擠壓出來。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉·恩達(dá)爾指出，從2007年4月時(shí)的每桶65美元到目前的百元價(jià)位，油價(jià)增長近一倍。但在這段時(shí)間里，全球的需求并沒有增長一倍，供應(yīng)也沒有大幅減少，供應(yīng)和需求是平衡的。</p> <p>　　<strong>油價(jià)回落利好中國經(jīng)濟(jì)</strong></p> <p>　　今年以來，國際油價(jià)的瘋狂上漲使我國東南沿海以油化產(chǎn)品為原料的中小企業(yè)面臨生存危機(jī)，此次油價(jià)的大幅回落將降低其生產(chǎn)成本，緩解中小企業(yè)發(fā)展困境。中小企業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中發(fā)揮的積極作用，對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將有助推作用。油價(jià)下跌的趨勢，對(duì)下半年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將產(chǎn)生較好的影響。</p> <p>　　對(duì)于國內(nèi)的三大石油公司來說，由于它們的業(yè)務(wù)重點(diǎn)有所不同，國際油價(jià)回落對(duì)于它們的影響也不同。中國石油大學(xué)(北京)工商管理學(xué)院副院長董秀成教授指出，中海油以上游開采業(yè)務(wù)為主，國際油價(jià)回落可能會(huì)擠壓其利潤空間；中石油的業(yè)務(wù)范圍涵蓋了開采和冶煉兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域，國際油價(jià)的下滑雖然減少了開采業(yè)務(wù)的利潤，但它一方面能降低下游煉油成本，另一方面也意味著其上交國家的特別收益金將減少，故而對(duì)中石油的影響也不大；中石化以冶煉業(yè)務(wù)為主，且70%以上的原油依賴進(jìn)口，因此國際油價(jià)的回調(diào)對(duì)中石化來說是利好消息。董秀成教授還認(rèn)為，高油價(jià)下中石油和中海油都能盈利，故而沒有盈虧平衡點(diǎn)之說；而作為煉油企業(yè)的中石化，其盈虧點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)的國際油價(jià)大致在90至100美元之間。</p> <p>　　<strong>把握時(shí)機(jī)推進(jìn)成品油價(jià)格體制改革</strong></p> <p>　　有關(guān)專家指出，國際油價(jià)持續(xù)回落對(duì)于我們理順成品油價(jià)格機(jī)制、推動(dòng)國內(nèi)相關(guān)制度改革是個(gè)十分有利的時(shí)機(jī)。</p> <p>　　岳來群指出，對(duì)于中國這個(gè)能源消費(fèi)大國來說，國際油價(jià)的大幅回落不僅有助于舒緩國內(nèi)成本推動(dòng)型的通脹壓力，而且可以從三個(gè)方面推動(dòng)國內(nèi)各項(xiàng)制度改革。首先，可以借助油價(jià)回落加快能源企業(yè)制度改革，推動(dòng)政企分開，提高企業(yè)效率和國際競爭力。其次，可以推動(dòng)國內(nèi)成品油市場定價(jià)機(jī)制的建立。今年6月20日，國家發(fā)改委上調(diào)了汽柴油價(jià)格，縮小了國際原油與國內(nèi)成品油的價(jià)差，但據(jù)有關(guān)方面測算，目前二者仍存在每噸近2000元的倒掛現(xiàn)象。最后，國際油價(jià)的下滑有助于國內(nèi)稅費(fèi)制度的調(diào)整，通過燃油稅、資源稅等推動(dòng)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化，“防止煤變油、風(fēng)能、核能等節(jié)能技術(shù)的開發(fā)因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)回落出現(xiàn)停滯現(xiàn)象”，進(jìn)而達(dá)到節(jié)能減排的目標(biāo)。</p> <p>　　董秀成也認(rèn)為，國際油價(jià)的走低有利于國內(nèi)理順成品油價(jià)格，形成新的定價(jià)機(jī)制。他還指出，我國應(yīng)加緊推進(jìn)成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制改革，但不要一步到位，應(yīng)考慮承受力的問題。(記者:王莉肖瑩瑩) </div> <div class="mlq6aso" id="partner"></div> <div class="0xa5cfq" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>藍(lán)玉貴】</div> <div class="3udoahp" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="ohqrh1s" class="" style="CLEAR: both; 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