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href="/index.shtml"><font color=ffffff>新聞中心</font></a> → </font><a href=/economic.html><font color=ffffff>經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞</font></a> </div> <div class="bmge9g9" id="newsContent"> <div class="jcdlxq9" id="newstext"> <div class="k89adhy" id="pageOp">【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='20px';">放大字體</a>】【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="e9xr9o9" class="title0">衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高懸市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)或?qū)⒃俳迪?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年10月28日 10:42 來(lái)源：經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào) <span id="5bswmqm" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="hza9zxj" class="style3">發(fā)表評(píng)論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="5tz9l9t" id="content" class="cStyle0"> <br><img src=http://image1.chinanews.com.cn/08p/PhotoN/080131/080131267za_3.jpg><br><br><p align=left> 財(cái)經(jīng)漫畫：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次降息中新社發(fā) 唐志順攝</p><br> <table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 class=12v><tr><td width=77%><table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=2 cellpadding=5><tr><td class=12v bgcolor=E4EEFC><font color=#FF6600><b>版權(quán)聲明:</b></font><font color=#666666>凡標(biāo)注有“cnsphoto”字樣的圖片版權(quán)均屬中國(guó)新聞網(wǎng)，未經(jīng)書面授權(quán)，不得轉(zhuǎn)載使用。</font></td></tr></table></td></tr></table> </div> <div id="zneyldj" class="slice"></div> <div class="9u8t9fz" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))于28日(當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間)召開(kāi)貨幣政策例會(huì)。鑒于目前金融危機(jī)愈演愈烈和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷增加，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)測(cè)，在本月8日緊急宣布降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在此次會(huì)議上再次下調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率(即商業(yè)銀行間隔夜拆借利率)。不過(guò)，降息效果可能將大不如前。 </p> <p>　　許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，政府7000億美元金融救助計(jì)劃對(duì)市場(chǎng)的激勵(lì)作用正在逐漸消退，對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的更深層次憂慮開(kāi)始主導(dǎo)投資者情緒，在通脹壓力已有所緩解的情況下，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能進(jìn)一步下調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率，以避免美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入嚴(yán)重的衰退困境中。</p> <p>　　多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在此次例會(huì)上將把聯(lián)邦基金利率至少再下調(diào)50個(gè)基點(diǎn)至1%，這是自2004年夏天以來(lái)的最低利率水平。也有一部分分析人士認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，將聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)至1.25%。</p> <p>　　東京-三菱銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯·魯普基表示，降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)或50個(gè)基點(diǎn)都是不錯(cuò)的選擇，降息的累積效應(yīng)會(huì)得到體現(xiàn)。全球財(cái)經(jīng)研究公司美國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布賴恩·貝蒂納認(rèn)為，面對(duì)困境，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)除了降息別無(wú)選擇，如有必要，利率甚至?xí)抵亮闼健Ｃ绹?guó)阿格斯研究公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家理查德·亞馬龍則指出，降息是提振市場(chǎng)信心的一個(gè)很好舉措，但他懷疑降息是否能刺激債務(wù)纏身的消費(fèi)者增加消費(fèi)。</p> <p>　　降息通常被視為緩解信貸緊縮、增進(jìn)市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性、避免實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入嚴(yán)重衰退的一劑猛藥。降息令銀行間的拆借成本下降，進(jìn)而意味著實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的借貸成本下降。美國(guó)的許多房貸、消費(fèi)信貸以及其他浮動(dòng)利率貸款都直接與商業(yè)銀行優(yōu)惠貸款利率掛鉤。如果聯(lián)邦基金利率降至1%，銀行優(yōu)惠貸款利率也將降至4年多來(lái)的最低水平——4%。然而，在當(dāng)前信貸危機(jī)不斷惡化的形勢(shì)下，許多銀行擔(dān)心短期內(nèi)自身資金不足，而不愿進(jìn)行同業(yè)拆借。因此，盡管短期借貸利率已經(jīng)較低，但市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性仍然未能大幅改善。</p> <p>　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2007年9月至2008年4月間已經(jīng)累計(jì)降息7次，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過(guò)降息的貨幣政策來(lái)解決信貸市場(chǎng)問(wèn)題已不再重要。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)副主席科恩也似乎承認(rèn)，降息的作用已不及以前重要。部分批評(píng)人士還指出，2003年夏天，格林斯潘將聯(lián)邦基金利率降至1%，并維持了一年，正是低利率才引發(fā)了房地產(chǎn)泡沫。</p> <p>　　本周美國(guó)將陸續(xù)公布第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值初值、9月份新房銷售數(shù)據(jù)、耐用品訂貨數(shù)據(jù)、個(gè)人消費(fèi)開(kāi)支數(shù)據(jù)以及10月份消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)等。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍不樂(lè)觀，他們認(rèn)為，各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)將延續(xù)頹勢(shì)，尤其是國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將可能出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。(王云）</div> <div class="chixkpl" id="partner"></div> <div class="zdedclb" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="9k9dhcy" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="n5x8y9b" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> 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